The Harpinion Brief: The business of building trust
After working across dozens of jurisdictions, one thing has become clear to me: operators often spend more time talking about government than talking to government.
When regulation doesn’t go their way, the instinct is to blame politics, taxes, bureaucracy, or culture. Sometimes that’s fair. More often, it’s easier than asking whether we’ve done enough to explain our business and demonstrate the value we bring.
One caveat. This reflects one operator’s perspective, not the entire market. But I believe the lesson applies far beyond Egypt.
When Egypt proposed a 14% VAT on casino drop, the industry’s first reaction was predictable. Most operators saw a tax proposal that threatened commercial viability.
What mattered wasn’t the proposal itself. It was how the industry responded.
Rather than criticizing the proposal from the sidelines, operators organized. They formed a casino association, brought the hotel sector into the conversation, and sat down with senior tax officials to explain how casino economics actually work. The proposal ultimately shifted toward a 3% levy on gross gaming revenue.
To me, that wasn’t just a better tax outcome. It was proof that constructive engagement delivers better results than confrontation.
The same lesson applies across Asia today. In the Philippines, political priorities can shift with every administration, and regulation often shifts with them. In online gaming, many operators have had to rethink their licensing strategies as offshore jurisdictions strengthen their regulatory frameworks. The details differ, but the principle is the same. Regulatory certainty should never be taken for granted. Successful operators stay engaged, adapt early, and build credibility before change becomes unavoidable.
The numbers will always tell us where the opportunities are. They rarely tell us what makes those opportunities sustainable. In my experience, that comes down to trust. Trust between operators and regulators. Trust that markets will remain fair, predictable, and worth investing in.
Harmen,
Host, Harpinion
Episode 7: Why the world keeps getting Egypt wrong
Egypt is one of the industry’s most overlooked markets. Drawing on decades of experience, Scott Cowan explores the regulatory, operational, and strategic decisions shaping its future and what the wider industry can learn from them.
Three themes shape the conversation:
1️⃣ Why Egypt represents a different type of gaming opportunity
The discussion explores how tourism, investment, and regulation are creating a market that challenges traditional assumptions about where gaming growth can come from.
2️⃣ Why Experience will define future growth
Beyond gaming revenue, successful destinations will depend on how well they create experiences that attract visitors and compete within the wider leisure economy.
3️⃣ Why Responsible gaming requires more than technology
The conversation examines why data can identify patterns, but meaningful responsible gaming requires human judgment, operational experience, and understanding.
Why Egypt matters
Egypt isn’t the story because of where it is today. It’s the story because of what happens if it succeeds.
Casino gaming remains limited to foreign passport holders, yet the country is investing aggressively in tourism and hospitality. In 2024, Egypt signed a landmark $35 billion agreement with the UAE to develop Ras El Hekma, the largest foreign direct investment deal in the country’s history. The project is expected to develop over the coming years, creating a major tourism and investment destination through the early 2030s.
Success has a way of changing regional conversations.
The UAE has already challenged long-held assumptions about gaming in the Middle East. If Egypt can pair world-class tourism infrastructure with sustained economic growth, neighboring governments will increasingly face the same question from investors, developers, and tourism leaders:
“If they can make it work, why can’t we?”
That’s why Egypt matters. Not because it’s the region’s largest gaming market today, but because it has the potential to influence what the next generation of gaming markets looks like.
Look beyond today’s numbers
One of the biggest mistakes in our industry is judging markets only by where they are today.
Gaming revenue and market size matter, but they rarely tell the whole story. The real question is whether the conditions for long-term growth are falling into place through investment, tourism, infrastructure, and constructive engagement between the public and private sectors.
Egypt is a good example. While its gaming market remains limited, the country’s investment in tourism and hospitality suggests a much bigger story is unfolding. The same principle applies to many emerging markets around the world.
By the time a market becomes the industry’s obvious success story, the biggest opportunities have often already been recognized by those who were paying attention early.
Markets we are watching
The markets below reflect the broader themes shaping gaming today: emerging opportunities, regulatory change, and the growing connection between gaming, tourism, and economic development.
🇪🇬 Egypt: The market being overlooked
Egypt remains one of the most interesting markets to watch. While local participation in gaming remains restricted, major tourism and infrastructure investment could reshape the conversation around the sector in the years ahead.
🇦🇪 UAE: The regional benchmark
The UAE continues to redefine expectations for gaming in the region. Its approach to regulated gaming and integrated resorts will likely influence how neighboring markets think about future opportunities.
🇵🇭 Philippines: Regulation in transition
The Philippines highlights how quickly market conditions can change. Political priorities, regulatory frameworks, and operator strategies continue to evolve, making adaptability essential.
🇻🇳 Vietnam: A case study in market evolution
Vietnam remains a key market to watch as it explores how regulated gaming, tourism, and local access can be balanced through a controlled approach.
🎧 Missed Episode 6?
As part of our ongoing conversations around gaming strategy, we previously explored another important question: how do you build a successful casino before the first customer ever walks through the door?
In Episode 6, Shaun McCamley shares his experience on casino development, operational planning, and why the decisions made before opening day often determine long-term success.
Perhaps the bigger question is not whether Egypt becomes the next gaming opportunity.
Perhaps the bigger question is what happens when more countries begin asking the same question:
If regulated gaming can support tourism, investment, and economic growth elsewhere, why wouldn’t it work here?
Every jurisdiction will answer that differently. But the conversation has already started.
The future of gaming will not only be shaped by the places that open their doors. It will also be shaped by the places that decide when, and why, they are ready to do so.
That is the conversation we will continue to explore through Harpinion.
Until then, stay sharp.
Harmen & The Harpinion Team
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